By Carolyn Bick
NORTHWEST ASIAN WEEKLY
If President Donald Trump’s tariff war keeps playing out at current levels, Washington is set to lose as many as 25,000 jobs—even as, at the same time, the cost of groceries for an average family will significantly increase over the next two years, and more families will rely on food banks, which themselves are already facing thinning supplies, as a result of these tariffs.
Joined by business owners and other officials, Gov. Bob Ferguson held a news conference on Sept. 4 to discuss impact projections from what he said are illegal tariffs. The projections come from an August report by the Office of Financial Management (OFM), which is a nonpartisan, independent state body.
Thomas Reynolds of Northwest Harvest emphasized that the tariffs act as regressive taxes, hitting the lowest-income families the hardest, because imported food is often the cheapest.
“When tariffs drive up those prices, families are left with fewer choices and less food,” Reynolds said. “We’re seeing the impact of this already: rising food insecurity, increased demand at food banks, growing pressure on our statewide network of [about 400] food pantry partners.”
The Asian Counseling and Referral Service and White Center Food Bank are both part of Northwest Harvest’s Food Access Network.
The OFM report relies on the tariffs in effect as of Aug. 7, which, cumulatively, stand at about 18.6% for Washington.
“Just to give you a sense of scale,” Ferguson said of the current tariff rate, “that is the highest effective tariff rate since 1933, the Great Depression.”
Washington state already has the second-most regressive taxes in the country, behind only Florida. It is also one of the most trade-dependent states in the country, generating nearly $58 billion from global exports in 2024, and contributing to 160,000 jobs in 2022. Ferguson said that the state had $62 billion in imports.
The Northwest Seaport Alliance (NWSA), which serves Seattle and Tacoma, specifically creates shorter trade routes between the United States and Asia. Among NWSA’s top trading partners are China, Japan, Vietnam, and Thailand. Trump has imposed steep tariffs on Vietnam and Thailand—20% and 19%, respectively—and Japan recently suspended mail to the United States, because of the 15% Trump has imposed on the country.
The bulk of Washington’s trade is with China, the country on which Trump has slapped the harshest tariffs, which currently stand at 57.6%. China has reciprocated with likewise steep tariffs on U.S. goods, at 32.6%.
Last year, Washington exported $12 billion in goods to China, which represented 21% of the state’s total goods exports. China’s reciprocal tariffs could significantly jeopardize the state’s export income.
Washington also heavily relies on Canada—not just for goods and revenue, but for agricultural jobs.
State Treasurer Mike Pellicciotti said in the news conference that Canada provides about 90% of Washington’s fertilizer for its agricultural industry, principally located in Central and Eastern Washington. More expensive fertilizer could mean that farms can’t grow the same amount of produce—and if they can’t grow the same amount of produce, then they will likely employ fewer people, because there will be no need for the same amount of farm workers.
This could mean that more seasonal and full-time agricultural workers—who are also primarily low-income immigrants—may find themselves out of a job.
The OFM report did not take into account possible future tariff increases or decreases—which have been unpredictable, at best—but instead looked at the cumulative effect four years down the road. By 2029, the OFM projects the effective tariff rate to stand at 27%.
By these numbers alone, Ferguson said, OFM predicts an annual economic growth rate decrease for Washington’s economy between 1.2%–1.8%, and that the state’s general fund will face a total, four-year loss of $2.2 billion.
This general fund is used to maintain and operate state services, including health care and education. The Trump administration has already gutted Medicaid, which means that at least 250,000 Washingtonians will lose Medicaid coverage, many of whom are children, immigrants, and low-income populations.
An additional 150,000 Washingtonians will be priced out of the health care marketplace. In 2019, 15% of the state’s Asian American, Native Hawai’ian, and Pacific Islander population were health care marketplace enrollees.
Any loss of revenue from the general fund could mean that the state is further hamstrung in its ability to provide medical coverage.
When asked whether Washington could resist the federal tariff policy in some way, as the state did along with Oregon, California, and Hawai’i in its vaccine guidance policies, Ferguson said that he was “open to anything I can do as a governor to mitigate the impacts of these tariffs on Washingtonians and Washington businesses.”
Ferguson declined to answer, when asked whether he would consider withholding federal income tax from the U.S. government, in an effort to fight the tariffs.