By Cheyna Kiakona
NORTHWEST ASIAN WEEKLY
As vote counting continues in key races for the House, Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) researchers have begun an early analysis of national exit poll data, offering insights into voter trends and shifting demographics.
NBC News reported that 54% of Asian voters voted for Kamala Harris, while 39% backed Donald Trump. However, AAPI researchers have cautioned against drawing broad conclusions from these preliminary figures. On Nov. 6, national experts and researchers from APIA Vote and AAPI Data convened at a data briefing to discuss nuances in AAPI voter data that may not be fully captured by mainstream polls.
“…the national election poll data does not provide Asian language support, and it is not designed to be representative of the Asian American population,” said Karthick Ramakrishnan, founder of AAPI Data.
While exit polls were conducted in English and Spanish, a significant portion of AAPI voters—55.3% in Washington, according to APIA Vote—speak a language other than English at home. Insufficient language support can limit the inclusivity of exit polls for AAPI voters in regions like King County, where over half of the Korean, Vietnamese, and Chinese American voter populations have turned in ballots, as cited by King County Elections.
Ramakrishnan said the resulting low sample size of Asian American voters surveyed for exit polls creates caveats to consider, including a lack of geographic and ethnic representation.
Despite these limitations, he noted the value of comparing the data sets over time to observe trends in AAPI voting behavior. One analysis of national exit poll data by AAPI Data showed an incline in Asian American support for the Democratic presidential candidate from 31% in 1992 to 73% in 2012.
“That is the largest vote shift observed of any voting group, not just any racial voting group, of any voting group in the contemporary period,” Ramakrishnan stated.
But he also noted a steady decline in support for Democrats among Asian Americans since the peak in 2012, with a corresponding rise in support for Republican candidates through 2024. The shift may reflect voters’ perceptions around party positions on issues like economic health, which can influence AAPI voter alignment.
“Often, they will rely on shortcuts that range from party identification to also messaging that comes through in political advertising to start forming an opinion on the issues,” said Ramakrishnan.
Additional insight on what Asian American voters considered their “make or break” issues for the election was revealed by an APIA Vote and AAPI Data survey conducted in September. While some answers were divided among party lines on topics like abortion policy, both Democrats and Republicans recorded the economy and immigration as important issues.
According to the survey, 62% of Asian American Democrats and 67% of Asian American Republicans reported they would not support a candidate who disagreed with them on immigration. Although both parties ranked the issue highly, they likely prioritize it for different reasons. Janelle Wong, a lead researcher at AAPI Data, suggested that these differences might explain the varied AAPI support for candidates across party lines.
“…I think the data that we see in the future will also bear this out, that immigration is going to be one of the issues that can account for why we saw some people of color voting for Donald Trump,” said Wong.
Sara Sadhwani, another lead researcher at AAPI Data, stated that future data will be used to better understand election outcome trends, including who drove them and why. AAPI Data plans to release more data and analysis in the coming weeks, with additional surveys on AAPI community priorities like immigration, hate incidents, and environmental policies expected next year.
Ramakrishnan added, “Hopefully, with seven surveys and counting with AP-NORC and two surveys this year with APIA Vote, you’ll find plenty of insights about our community to make sense of this fast-growing and evolving electorate.”